🌤 Weather Report

Market conditions across 7 weighted layers — rate each indicator to assess planting conditions.

Layers 2–6 can be auto-filled from live market data (yfinance + FRED). Layer 1 (Economic Cycle) and the Catalyst veto always require manual input.

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Rate each indicator to see your overall planting conditions.

⛔ Catalyst / earnings window active — planting vetoed regardless of score
Scoring weights: Economic Cycle 20% Fed Policy 20% Market Trend 20% Valuation 15% Credit Spreads 10% Sentiment/VIX 10% Sector 5% Catalyst veto overrides all
Layer 1–2 · Slow-Moving Climate (Months / Years)
Layer 1 · Macro
Economic Cycle (ML Investment Clock)
"What season are we in? Click your quadrant."
← Growth Falling · Growth Rising →
❄️ Stagflation
Growth↓ · Inflation↑
Favours: Cash, Short bonds
🌡 Overheat
Growth↑ · Inflation↑
Favours: Commodities, TIPS
🌧 Reflation
Growth↓ · Inflation↓
Favours: Bonds, Defensives
🌱 Recovery
Growth↑ · Inflation↓
Favours: Equities, Options
↑ Inflation RisingInflation Falling ↓
Selected: — Not selected —

ISM PMI CPI (FRED) GDP (FRED) Unemployment
Layer 2 · Valuation
Market Valuation (Shiller CAPE)
"Is the land overpriced?"
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🟢 <25 · 🟡 25–33 · 🔴 >33 (post-2000 era thresholds)

Shiller CAPE S&P P/E Buffett Indicator
Layer 3–4 · Mid-Term Climate (Weeks / Months)
Layer 3 · Policy
Fed Policy & Interest Rates
"Is there a cold front moving in?"
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FOMC Schedule FedWatch Tool
Layer 4 · Trend
Market Trend (200 DMA)
"Is the soil fertile right now?"
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SPY Chart StockCharts
Layer 5–6 · Daily Weather
Layer 5 · Sentiment
Sentiment — VIX & Fear/Greed
"What's the daily weather mood?"
VIX (^VIX)

🟢 <20 · 🟡 20–30 · 🔴 >30

CNN Fear & Greed
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Combined signal: —

Signal = worse of VIX and Fear & Greed · Rising VIX downgrades by one step

VIX — 6 months
Fear & Greed — 60 days
CNN Fear & Greed VIX (^VIX) CBOE VIX
Layer 6 · Early Warning
Credit Spreads
"Watching livestock before a storm"
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HY Spread (FRED) HYG ETF
Layer 7 · Field-by-Field
Layer 7 · Sector
Sector Breadth
"Which fields are healthy?"
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🟢 >70% · 🟡 40–70% · 🔴 <40% of S&P sectors above 50 DMA

FinViz Sector Map Sector ETFs Sector % vs DMA
Catalyst Override
Planting Conditions Cheat Sheet
✅ Plant Freely (Score ≥ 7.0)
  • • ML Clock: 🌱 Recovery (Growth↑, Inflation↓)
  • • CAPE < 25 (fair) or < 33 (manageable)
  • • Fed pausing or cutting rates
  • • S&P >2% above 200 DMA
  • • VIX < 20 and steady or falling
  • • Credit spreads tight / narrowing
  • • >70% sectors above 50 DMA
  • • IVR > 30% on target stock
  • • No earnings / catalyst in window
⚠️ Plant Cautiously (Score 4.0–6.9)
  • • ML Clock: 🌡 Overheat or 🌧 Reflation
  • • CAPE 25–33 (elevated)
  • • Fed pausing with hawkish tone
  • • S&P within 2% of 200 DMA
  • • VIX 20–30 or rising from below 20
  • • Credit spreads elevated / flat
  • • 40–70% sectors above 50 DMA
  • • Reduce position sizes by 30–50%
❌ Don't Plant (Score < 4.0 or veto)
  • • ML Clock: ❄️ Stagflation (worst case)
  • • CAPE > 33 + multiple red signals
  • • Fed actively hiking
  • • S&P below 200 DMA
  • • VIX > 30 or spiking rapidly
  • • Credit spreads widening sharply
  • • <40% sectors above 50 DMA
  • • Earnings / binary catalyst upcoming